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GROUP A · MATCHDAY 2 · 21:00 EDT
🇲🇽 Mexico vs 🇰🇷 South Korea
Mexico
43%
Draw
39%
South Korea
18%

Pre-Match Analysis

ELO gap of 73 points favours Mexico, whom the model gives a 43% win probability. Draw probability sits at 39%. Combined expected goals total 1.20, below the 2.69 tournament average — a low-scoring match is expected. Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (31.3%). Pattern-based upset probability: 0%.

λ_MEX = 0.897 μ_SOU = 0.300 ρ = -0.1300 (MLE, n=128) P(0-0) = 0.3125 P(1-0) = 0.2604 P(1-1) = 0.0919

Model Prediction

Most likely: Mexico — 43% confidence  ⚠ Toss-up (<5pp margin)
Expected total goals (xG sum): 1.2

Scoreline Probability

0-0
31.3%
1-0
26.0%
2-0
12.2%
1-1
9.2%
0-1
8.0%

Team Strength

Mexico
South Korea
1654
ELO
1582
1.41
xG For
1.84
0.07
xG Against
0.85
1.27
Attack Str
1.27
0.00
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1