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GROUP B Β· MATCHDAY 2 Β· 18:00 EDT
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Canada vs πŸ‡ΆπŸ‡¦ Qatar
Canada
30%
Draw
45%
Qatar
25%

Pre-Match Analysis

ELO gap of 79 points favours Canada, whom the model gives a 30% win probability. Draw probability sits at 45%. Combined expected goals total 0.81, below the 2.69 tournament average β€” a low-scoring match is expected. Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (45.3%). Pattern-based upset probability: 0%.

λ_CAN = 0.453 μ_QAT = 0.361 ρ = -0.1300 (MLE, n=128) P(0-0) = 0.4526 P(1-0) = 0.1914 P(1-1) = 0.0818

Model Prediction

Most likely: Draw β€” 45% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 0.8

Scoreline Probability

0-0
45.3%
1-0
19.1%
0-1
15.0%
1-1
8.2%
2-0
4.5%

Team Strength

Canada
Qatar
1543
ELO
1464
1.25
xG For
0.64
0.98
xG Against
3.24
0.64
Attack Str
0.64
0.64
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1