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GROUP B · MATCHDAY 2 · 15:00 EDT
🇨🇭 Switzerland vs 🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Switzerland
34%
Draw
44%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
22%

Pre-Match Analysis

ELO gap of 202 points favours Switzerland, whom the model gives a 34% win probability. Draw probability sits at 44%. Combined expected goals total 0.84, below the 2.69 tournament average — a low-scoring match is expected. Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (44.0%). Pattern-based upset probability: 0%.

λ_SWI = 0.541 μ_BOS = 0.302 ρ = -0.1300 (MLE, n=128) P(0-0) = 0.4396 P(1-0) = 0.2237 P(1-1) = 0.0795

Model Prediction

Most likely: Draw — 44% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 0.8

Scoreline Probability

0-0
44.0%
1-0
22.4%
0-1
12.1%
1-1
7.9%
2-0
6.3%

Team Strength

Switzerland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1616
ELO
1413
3.24
xG For
0.98
0.64
xG Against
1.25
0.64
Attack Str
0.64
0.64
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1