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GROUP A · MATCHDAY 2 · FULL TIME
🇨🇿 Czechia 1 — 1 🇿🇦 South Africa
Pre-Match Odds
Czechia
43%
Draw
39%
South Africa
18%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Czechia 43%
→
—
Draw 39%
→
DRAW
South Africa 18%
→
—
Predicted: CZECHIA (toss-up) ✗ MISS  ·  Brier Score: 0.59
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Czechia — 42.7% confidence  ⚠ Toss-up (<5pp margin)
Expected total goals (xG sum): 1.2

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: Czechia WIN (43%) — most likely 0-0
Actual result: 🇨🇿 Czechia 1 — 1 🇿🇦 South Africa
What the model got right
  • ✅ Low-scoring prediction accurate
What the model missed
  • ❌ Winner incorrect — predicted Czechia, actual Draw
  • ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • → Goal count significantly exceeded model expectation

Scoreline Probability

0-0
34.1%
1-0
22.5%
0-1
11.7%
1-1
10.5%
2-0
8.5%

Team Strength

Czechia
South Africa
1495
ELO
1439
0.90
xG For
0.65
1.54
xG Against
1.17
0.64
Attack Str
0.32
0.95
Defense Str
0.95
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1