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GROUP K · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
1 — 3
🇨🇴 Colombia
Pre-Match Odds
Prediction vs Result
Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Uzbekistan 25%
→
—
Draw 33%
→
—
Colombia 42%
→
Colombia WIN
Predicted: COLOMBIA
✓ CORRECT
·
Brier Score: 0.51
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)
Pre-Match Prediction
Most likely: Colombia — 41.9% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.1
Post-Match Review
Model predicted: Colombia WIN (42%) — most likely 0-2
Actual result: 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan 1 — 3 🇨🇴 Colombia
What the model got right
- ✅ Correct winner prediction (Colombia WIN)
- ✅ xG edge correctly identified (Uzbekistan 0.30 vs Colombia 3.00)
What the model missed
- ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
- → No significant model blind spots identified
Team Strength
Uzbekistan
Colombia
1462
ELO
1663
1.16
xG For
1.62
1.62
xG Against
1.16
0.64
Attack Str
1.91
1.91
Defense Str
0.64