← All fixtures
GROUP L · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇬🇭 Ghana 1 — 0 Panama
Pre-Match Odds
Ghana
27%
Draw
33%
Panama
40%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Ghana 27%
→
Ghana WIN
Draw 33%
→
—
Panama 40%
→
—
Predicted: PANAMA ✗ MISS  ·  Brier Score: 0.81
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Panama — 40.2% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.0

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: Panama WIN (40%) — most likely 0-0
Actual result: 🇬🇭 Ghana 1 — 0 Panama
What the model got right
  • ✅ xG edge correctly identified (Ghana 0.34 vs Panama 0.30)
  • ✅ Low-scoring prediction accurate
What the model missed
  • ❌ Winner incorrect — predicted Panama, actual Ghana
Key factors not captured
  • → High ELO gap upset — model underweighted upset probability
  • → Goal count significantly exceeded model expectation

Scoreline Probability

0-0
53.6%
1-0
17.1%
0-1
15.2%
1-1
6.0%
2-0
3.0%

Team Strength

Ghana
Panama
1391
ELO
1517
1.25
xG For
0.77
0.77
xG Against
1.25
0.64
Attack Str
0.00
0.00
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1