โ† All fixtures
GROUP L ยท MATCHDAY 1 ยท FULL TIME
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England 4 โ€” 2 ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
Pre-Match Odds
England
37%
Draw
34%
Croatia
29%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
England 37%
โ†’
England WIN
Draw 34%
โ†’
โ€”
Croatia 29%
โ†’
โ€”
Predicted: ENGLAND (toss-up) โœ“ CORRECT  ·  Brier Score: 0.59
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: England โ€” 37.1% confidence  โš  Toss-up (<5pp margin)
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.0

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: England WIN (37%) โ€” most likely 2-1
Actual result: ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England 4 โ€” 2 ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
What the model got right
  • โœ… Correct winner prediction (England WIN)
  • โœ… xG edge correctly identified (England 3.00 vs Croatia 1.39)
What the model missed
  • โŒ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • โ†’ No significant model blind spots identified

Scoreline Probability

2-1
8.0%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
6.1%
4-1
6.0%
2-0
5.8%

Team Strength

England
Croatia
1770
ELO
1665
2.80
xG For
0.71
0.71
xG Against
2.80
2.54
Attack Str
1.27
1.27
Defense Str
2.54
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1