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GROUP K · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇵🇹 Portugal 1 — 1 🇨🇩 DR Congo
Pre-Match Odds
Portugal
44%
Draw
32%
DR Congo
23%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Portugal 44%
→
—
Draw 32%
→
DRAW
DR Congo 23%
→
—
Predicted: PORTUGAL ✗ MISS  ·  Brier Score: 0.71
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Portugal — 44.2% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.1

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: Portugal WIN (44%) — most likely 0-0
Actual result: 🇵🇹 Portugal 1 — 1 🇨🇩 DR Congo
What the model got right
  • ✅ Low-scoring prediction accurate
What the model missed
  • ❌ Winner incorrect — predicted Portugal, actual Draw
  • ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • → High ELO gap upset — model underweighted upset probability
  • → Goal count significantly exceeded model expectation

Scoreline Probability

0-0
43.3%
1-0
22.7%
0-1
11.8%
1-1
8.0%
2-0
6.6%

Team Strength

Portugal
DR Congo
1709
ELO
1485
0.69
xG For
0.82
0.82
xG Against
0.69
0.64
Attack Str
0.64
0.64
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1