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GROUP J · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇦🇷 Argentina 3 — 0 🇩🇿 Algeria
Pre-Match Odds
Argentina
53%
Draw
30%
Algeria
17%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Argentina 53%
→
Argentina WIN
Draw 30%
→
—
Algeria 17%
→
—
Predicted: ARGENTINA ✓ CORRECT  ·  Brier Score: 0.34
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Argentina — 52.7% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.1

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: Argentina WIN (53%) — most likely 2-0
Actual result: 🇦🇷 Argentina 3 — 0 🇩🇿 Algeria
What the model got right
  • ✅ Correct winner prediction (Argentina WIN)
  • ✅ xG edge correctly identified (Argentina 3.00 vs Algeria 0.30)
Key factors not captured
  • → No significant model blind spots identified

Scoreline Probability

2-0
17.2%
3-0
17.2%
4-0
12.9%
1-0
11.0%
5-0
7.7%

Team Strength

Argentina
Algeria
1806
ELO
1553
1.23
xG For
0.31
0.31
xG Against
1.23
1.91
Attack Str
0.00
0.00
Defense Str
1.91
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1