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GROUP I · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇮🇶 Iraq 1 — 4 🇳🇴 Norway
Pre-Match Odds
Iraq
26%
Draw
34%
Norway
40%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Iraq 26%
→
—
Draw 34%
→
—
Norway 40%
→
Norway WIN
Predicted: NORWAY ✓ CORRECT  ·  Brier Score: 0.55
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Norway — 39.8% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.0

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: Norway WIN (40%) — most likely 0-2
Actual result: 🇮🇶 Iraq 1 — 4 🇳🇴 Norway
What the model got right
  • ✅ Correct winner prediction (Norway WIN)
  • ✅ xG edge correctly identified (Iraq 0.35 vs Norway 3.00)
What the model missed
  • ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • → No significant model blind spots identified

Scoreline Probability

0-2
16.4%
0-3
16.4%
0-4
12.3%
0-1
10.4%
0-5
7.4%

Team Strength

Iraq
Norway
1449
ELO
1553
0.77
xG For
2.53
2.53
xG Against
0.77
0.64
Attack Str
2.54
2.54
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1