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GROUP I · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇫🇷 France 3 — 1 🇸🇳 Senegal
Pre-Match Odds
France
45%
Draw
33%
Senegal
22%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
France 45%
→
France WIN
Draw 33%
→
—
Senegal 22%
→
—
Predicted: FRANCE ✓ CORRECT  ·  Brier Score: 0.46
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: France — 44.7% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.0

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: France WIN (45%) — most likely 2-0
Actual result: 🇫🇷 France 3 — 1 🇸🇳 Senegal
What the model got right
  • ✅ Correct winner prediction (France WIN)
  • ✅ xG edge correctly identified (France 3.00 vs Senegal 0.32)
What the model missed
  • ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • → No significant model blind spots identified

Scoreline Probability

2-0
16.8%
3-0
16.8%
4-0
12.6%
1-0
10.7%
5-0
7.6%

Team Strength

France
Senegal
1803
ELO
1641
1.89
xG For
0.50
0.50
xG Against
1.89
1.91
Attack Str
0.64
0.64
Defense Str
1.91
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1