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GROUP G · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇮🇷 Iran
2 — 2
🇳🇿 New Zealand
Pre-Match Odds
Prediction vs Result
Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Iran 55%
→
—
Draw 29%
→
DRAW
New Zealand 15%
→
—
Predicted: IRAN
✗ MISS
·
Brier Score: 0.83
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)
Pre-Match Prediction
Most likely: Iran — 55.4% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): 2.2
Post-Match Review
Model predicted: Iran WIN (55%) — most likely 2-1
Actual result: 🇮🇷 Iran 2 — 2 🇳🇿 New Zealand
What the model missed
- ❌ Winner incorrect — predicted Iran, actual Draw
Key factors not captured
- → No 2026 xG data yet — first match of tournament for this team
- → High ELO gap upset — model underweighted upset probability
Team Strength
Iran
New Zealand
1589
ELO
1327
N/A
xG For
1.24
N/A
xG Against
1.50
1.27
Attack Str
1.27
1.27
Defense Str
1.27