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GROUP H · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1 — 1 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Pre-Match Odds
Saudi Arabia
19%
Draw
32%
Uruguay
49%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Saudi Arabia 19%
→
—
Draw 32%
→
DRAW
Uruguay 49%
→
—
Predicted: URUGUAY ✗ MISS  ·  Brier Score: 0.75
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Uruguay — 49.0% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): n/a

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: Uruguay WIN (49%) — most likely 0-0
Actual result: 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 1 — 1 🇺🇾 Uruguay
What the model got right
  • ✅ Low-scoring prediction accurate
What the model missed
  • ❌ Winner incorrect — predicted Uruguay, actual Draw
  • ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • → High ELO gap upset — model underweighted upset probability
  • → Goal count significantly exceeded model expectation

Scoreline Probability

0-0
44.1%
0-1
22.0%
1-0
12.4%
1-1
8.0%
0-2
6.1%

Team Strength

Saudi Arabia
Uruguay
1444
ELO
1633
0.99
xG For
1.59
1.59
xG Against
0.99
0.64
Attack Str
0.64
0.64
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1