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GROUP G · MATCHDAY 1 · FULL TIME
🇧🇪 Belgium 1 — 1 🇪🇬 Egypt
Pre-Match Odds
Belgium
32%
Draw
48%
Egypt
19%

Prediction vs Result

Pre-Match Prediction
Actual Result
Belgium 32%
→
—
Draw 48%
→
DRAW
Egypt 19%
→
—
Predicted: DRAW ✓ CORRECT  ·  Brier Score: 0.41
SEASON RECORD: 7/12 CORRECT (58%)

Pre-Match Prediction

Most likely: Draw — 48.0% confidence
Expected total goals (xG sum): n/a

Post-Match Review

Model predicted: DRAW (48%) — most likely 0-0
Actual result: 🇧🇪 Belgium 1 — 1 🇪🇬 Egypt
What the model got right
  • ✅ Correct draw prediction
  • ✅ Low-scoring prediction accurate
What the model missed
  • ❌ Scoreline significantly underestimated
Key factors not captured
  • → High ELO gap upset — model underweighted upset probability
  • → Goal count significantly exceeded model expectation

Scoreline Probability

0-0
44.8%
1-0
20.6%
0-1
13.6%
1-1
8.1%
2-0
5.3%

Team Strength

Belgium
Egypt
1690
ELO
1554
1.31
xG For
1.07
1.07
xG Against
1.31
0.64
Attack Str
0.64
0.64
Defense Str
0.64
Upset Probability: 0% Dixon-Coles v1